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- Jun 17, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Holds Rates at the June 2026 FOMC Meeting Under Chair Warsh and Removes the Easing Bias
- The Federal Open Market Committee approved its 17 June 2026 statement 12-0, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, released at 2:00 p.m. EDT[1]
- The statement was shorter than earlier ones, said inflation remained elevated partly because of supply shocks including energy, and closed with "The Committee will deliver price stability"[1]
- The minutes list Kevin Warsh first among the voters, where April's listed Jerome Powell, making June the first meeting under the new Chair[4]
- The Summary of Economic Projections' median federal funds rate rose to 3.8 percent at the end of 2026 from 3.4 percent in March, implying an increase before year-end[3]
- Kalshi's decision market resolved to Fed maintains rate, and Polymarket's June decision market resolved to No change[5]
- Chair Kevin Warsh held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 688% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Jun 17, 2026 ✓· 17% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2][3][4] statement is dated 17 June 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 16-17 June meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi[5] and Polymarket[6] decision markets.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 17% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1][3][4] own calendar lists the June 16-17 2026 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]95%Summary of Economic Projections, June 2026 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 17% of score
The Fed's projection table, whose median federal funds rate figures the pin quotes.[1]
- [4]95%Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026federalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 17% of score
The Fed's published minutes, whose voting record repeats the statement and whose voter list shows who chaired.[1]
- [5]80%Fed decision in June 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi's KXFEDDECISION market for the meeting strikes on 17 June 2026 and resolved to Fed maintains rate, with 33.2 million contracts traded across its five outcomes.
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