- Start
- Mar 22, 202390% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Raises Rates a Quarter Point to 4.75%-5.00% at the March 2023 FOMC Meeting
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided on 22 March 2023 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4.75%-5.00%, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT[1]
- The statement opened: "Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low."[1]
- All 11 voting members voted for the action[1]
- The meeting came with a Summary of Economic Projections, whose median put the federal funds rate at 5.1 percent at the end of 2023 and 4.3 percent at the end of 2024[3]
- Kalshi's Fed funds rate market for the month resolved Yes up to "Above 4.75%" and No above it, an upper bound of 5.00%, with 1.6 million contracts traded across its thresholds[4]
- Polymarket's March rate market resolved to a 25 bps increase, with about $455 thousand traded[5]
- Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 587% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230322a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Mar 22, 2023 ✓· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2][3] statement is dated 22 March 2023 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. EDT, matching the March 2023 meeting on its calendar.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1][3] own calendar page lists the March 2023 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]95%Summary of Economic Projections, March 2023 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Fed's projection table, whose median federal funds rate figures the pin quotes.[1]
- [4]80%Fed funds rate in March 2023? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Kalshi's FED market for the meeting resolved with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.75%", and 1.6 million contracts were traded.
- [5]75%Fed Interest Rates March 2023 - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Polymarket's event for the meeting resolved to a 25 bps increase, with about $455 thousand traded, independently confirming the outcome.
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