Chronopin: upcoming release dates, events and other important dates

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.

Kalshi settles its year-end ranking market on which lab holds the top AI model on December 31, 2026 — the exchange’s biggest AI book at 11.5M contracts. On 20 September 2026 Claude led at 71.5%, ahead of ChatGPT at 13.6%, Gemini at 8.9% and Grok at 4.1%.

PLDT's ePLDT plans to sell up to 49% of VITRO REIT, eight data centres with about 24 MW, for up to ₱24.2 billion at up to ₱11 a share; the 12 October listing has been pushed back while cornerstone investors are lined up.

The first deployment of Jalapeño, the inference accelerator OpenAI designed and Broadcom builds under their 10 GW deal, due by the end of 2026 in data centers with Microsoft and other partners, ahead of a planned 1.3 GW in 2027.

Hershey's Advancing Agility & Automation Initiative, which cut jobs and automated processes from 2024, is due to finish at the end of 2026 at a cost of $200-250 million. It is expected to leave about $400 million of annual savings.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.