CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Home page opened 2026-10-18: Saturday, Dec 12, 2026, preshow 5:30 PM, parade and fireworks 6:00 PM. Cost wording is not on the page; free-to-watch is not verified there.[1]
Decorated boats float a roughly 12-mile route along the waterways with a preshow and fireworks, a signature South Florida holiday tradition.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins84% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 84%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
T-Mobile Arena[2] lists SaturdayDecember12,2026, EventStarts2:00PM and DoorsOpen1:00PM. The event start in Las Vegas (PST) is22:00UTC, separately from any main-card broadcast time.
Charles Oliveira faces Diego Lopes for the BMF title at T-Mobile Arena on December12. Alex Pereira meets Sergei Pavlovich in the heavyweight co-main; the venue lists a2p.m. local event start.
Moll Adossat, la Marina del Prat Vermell, Sants-Montjuïc, Barcelona, Barcelonès, Barcelona, Catalonia, 08039, SpainRegent Seven Seas Cruises
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Regent's announcement, as reported by Cruise Industry News[1][4], says the maiden voyage "is set to depart from Barcelona on Dec. 13, 2026".
Regent Seven Seas' 77,000-ton Seven Seas Prestige departs Barcelona on 13 December 2026 on a 14-night transatlantic crossing to Miami, opening a 13-cruise inaugural season.
CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
KPBS[1] listing gives Sundays December 13 and 20, 2026 as parade dates.
Decorated boats parade on the bay, viewable from the waterfront or on cruises.
Europa Building, 165 Rue de la Loi - Wetstraat, European Quarter, 1040 Brussels, BelgiumCouncil of the European Union
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins76% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 76%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Irish Presidency indicative high-level calendar (July-December 2026): 'AGRIFISH' listed on Monday 14 and Tuesday 15 December 2026.[1]
The December Agriculture and Fisheries Council, chaired by Ireland's EU presidency, meets on 14-15 December 2026 in Brussels to fix the EU's 2027 catch limits and quotas for the Atlantic, North Sea, Mediterranean and Black Sea.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins77% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 77%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Anime News Network[1] reports Titan Manga's announcement that the anniversary edition launches in English on 15 December; one retailer listing shows 1 December, which Titan's own announcement overrides.
Titan Manga brings Yunosuke Yoshinaga's mecha manga Break Blade (Broken Blade) back into English print with a special anniversary edition on 15 December 2026, the first English release since CMX stopped at three volumes in 2010.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The Academy's key-dates list: 'Oscar shortlists announced: Tuesday, December 15, 2026'; no time of day is published, so the pin is the all-day date.[1]
The Academy announces the Oscar shortlists on Tuesday 15 December 2026, four days after preliminary voting closes, narrowing categories such as International Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Song and Visual Effects before nominations voting.
Stanley Mosk Courthouse, 111, North Hill Street, Civic Center, Downtown, Los Angeles, Los Angeles County, California, 90012, United StatesTesla
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Court docket, case 26STCP00629: 'Hearing on Petition for Writ of Mandate scheduled for 12/18/2026 at 09:30 AM in Stanley Mosk Courthouse at Department 82'.[1]
A Los Angeles judge is set to hear Tesla's petition to overturn the California DMV's finding that its 'Autopilot' and 'Full Self-Driving' marketing was false advertising, a label Tesla wants removed even though it already complied with the order.
Jeddah Corniche Circuit, طريق الكورنيش الشمالي, Al-Shatee, Jeddah, Governorate of Jidda, Makkah Region, 23613, Saudi ArabiaFormula E
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins79% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 79%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Formula E and the FIA's 23 June 2026 calendar release lists rounds 1 and 2 at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit on 18 & 19 December 2026, and CEO Jeff Dodds said on 8 August that opening in Jeddah is "absolutely our plan".[1]
Season 13 of the ABB FIA Formula E World Championship opens with two night races at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit on 18 and 19 December 2026, the competitive debut of the Gen4 car and the first of a record 21 races in 13 cities.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins83% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 83%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
ABC7 New York, 17 August 2026: "Mangione is scheduled to be sentenced in federal court eight days later, on Dec. 18"; the SDNY release says he "is scheduled to be sentenced on December 18, 2026".[1]
Judge Margaret Garnett is scheduled to sentence Luigi Mangione for stalking and killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson; each count carries up to life, and prosecutors have said they will seek a life term.
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Estimated: the winner remains uncertain. October 30 Polymarket[1] snapshot: Nashville 22%, Miami 16.5%, Vancouver 14.2%, Dallas 6.4%; reported volume USD 23,185,511. MLS officially schedules the final for December 18, 2026, without a confirmed kickoff or host. Market settlement buffer January 1 is not the event date.
Polymarket
Nashville leads the October 30 Polymarket snapshot at 22%, ahead of Miami at 16.5%. MLS schedules its final for December 18; the finalists and host remain undecided.
CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins84% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 84%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Officially locked by Marvel[5]/Disney and reported as a fixed date: "scheduled to release on Friday, December 18, 2026."
Marvel Studios' next Avengers ensemble film unites heroes from three universes against Robert Downey Jr.'s Victor von Doom, opening the finale of the Multiverse Saga.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The Golden Globes[2][4][5] timetable: 'Friday, December 18, 2026 Final ballots sent to all voters by KPMG' and 'Saturday, January 2, 2027 by 5:00 p.m. PST Deadline for receipt of final ballots to KPMG'.
Golden Globes members receive final ballots from KPMG on 18 December 2026 and must return them by 5:00 p.m. PST on 2 January 2027, eight days before the 84th ceremony on 10 January.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins77% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 77%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The official site lists 19 December (Saturday) and 20 December (Sunday) 2026, 9:00-17:00 at Makuhari Messe halls 1-9 and 11; the pin ends at the exclusive 00:00Z after the last day.[1]
Shueisha's annual Jump manga, anime and games festival returns to Makuhari Messe in Chiba on 19 and 20 December 2026 under the name Jump Festa 2027, with free entry by advance registration and stages for One Piece, Jujutsu Kaisen, Spy x Family and more.
Taipei City Hall, 2, Zhongxiao East Road Section 5, Xingya Village, Xinyi District, Taipei, 11071, TaiwanTaipei City Government
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Race guide (1 Aug 2026): "Race Date: Sunday, 20 December 2026", "Marathon 6:30 AM" gun time (22:30 UTC on 19 December); Wikipedia[2][3][4] says the race is usually held on the third weekend of December.
The 2026 Taipei Marathon is scheduled for Sunday 20 December, starting at Taipei City Hall Plaza at 6:30 a.m., with about 28,000 runners across the marathon and half marathon.
Tianhe Sports Center, Tiyu East Road, Tianhenan, Tianhe District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong, 501620, ChinaChinese Athletics Association
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins81% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The Guangzhou municipal government's visitor site announces the marathon for 20 December 2026 with registration from 2 to 11 September, and race calendars list the same Sunday.[1]
Guangzhou's marathon is set for Sunday 20 December 2026 with a 30,000-runner quota, a start at Tianhe Sports Center, a finish at Haixinsha and a 180-yuan entry fee.
1, Cannondale Way, South Wilton, Wilton, Western Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut, 06897, United StatesCannondale
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins88% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Stated: the October 21 WARN letter quoted by Bicycle Retailer[1][3] schedules first separations on December 21,2026, with phases through December 31,2027. Company statement separately says Wilton operations wind down by mid-2027. Event dates cover the separation window, not an assertion the office remains operating through the final separation.
Cannondale’s Wilton office transition affects 143 listed roles, including remote workers. First separations are scheduled for December 21,2026; office operations wind down by mid-2027, while separations may continue through December 31,2027.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins84% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 84%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
TVmaze's[1][2] forward schedule gives 2026-12-24 as the announced premiere on Netflix.
After landing her dream job in Paris, Chicago marketing exec Emily Cooper embraces her adventurous new life while juggling work, friends and romance. Season 6 starts on Netflix.
Snapdragon Stadium, 1, Stadium Way, Mission City, Serra Mesa, San Diego, San Diego County, California, 92182, United StatesPoinsettia Bowl
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Scheduled: the bowl's own site gives "12.23.26 KICK-OFF 4:30PM PST" at Snapdragon Stadium, and the organisers' release says it "kicks off Wednesday, December 23 at 4:30 p.m." (PST, so 00:30Z on 24 December).[1]
The 13th SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl, the first since 2016, kicks off at 4:30 p.m. on 23 December 2026 at Snapdragon Stadium and airs on The CW.
1100 Avenue Of The Americas, New York City, New York, United StatesHBO
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins81% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
TVmaze's[1][2] forward schedule gives 2026-12-25 as the announced premiere on HBO.
There is nothing special about Harry Potter - at least that's what his Aunt Petunia always says. On his 11th birthday, a letter of admittance to Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry opens up a hidden world for Harry: one of fun, friendship and magic. But with this new adventure comes great risk as Harry is forced to face a dangerous enemy from his past. Season 1 starts on HBO.
Cruising Yacht Club of Australia, 1, New Beach Road, Darling Point, Eastern Suburbs, Sydney, New South Wales, 2027, AustraliaCruising Yacht Club of Australia
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins81% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The Cruising Yacht Club of Australia's event page gives a start at 13:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026; the finish window of several days is an estimate.[1]
The 628-nautical-mile Rolex Sydney Hobart, run by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia since 1945, starts at 13:00 on Saturday 26 December 2026 on Sydney Harbour.
Snapdragon Stadium, 1, Stadium Way, Mission City, Serra Mesa, San Diego, San Diego County, California, 92182, United StatesHoliday Bowl
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Scheduled: the Holiday Bowl's[1][4] site says "47th Annual Holiday Bowl Set For December 28 - December 28, 2026 • 2:00PM PT • Snapdragon Stadium" (PST, so 22:00Z).
San Diego's 47th Holiday Bowl is set for 2 p.m. on Monday 28 December 2026 at Snapdragon Stadium, back in December after last season's game became the first played in January.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins88% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
California EDD’s current WARN workbook lists 159 permanent layoffs, notice/receipt October27,2026 and effective December29,2026 for Walt Disney Parks & Resorts US, Inc. at1401 Flower Street, Glendale.[1]
A California WARN filing lists 159 permanent job cuts at Disney’s Glendale site effective December 29, 2026. It does not identify specific roles or cancelled projects.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins77% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 77%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Given as scheduled, per the source[1]: "Scheduled for completion in 2026."
The 53-storey DC Tower 2 is rising beside its twin in Donau City using a jump-form climbing system, on track to finish out the district by the end of 2026.
Sony Pictures Studios, 10202 West Washington Boulevard, Culver City, CA 90232, USA
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The 2026 calendar year closes on 31 December, and Polymarket's[1] own rules tie settlement to Box Office Mojo's[2] 2026 calendar-gross table once that day's data is available.
Polymarket
Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Polymarket[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins60% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 60%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
No casting date has been announced. Polymarket's[1] market runs to 31 December 2026 and prices a one-in-five chance that no Bond is named by then, so the end of 2026 is a market-implied estimate rather than a scheduled event.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.
Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins63% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 63%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Nothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.
Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
No date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's[1][3] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
A year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.