Chronopin: upcoming release dates, events and other important dates

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Boston’s free First Night celebration welcomes 2027 on December 31, 2026, with Copley Square as its announced hub. The new edition’s performer schedule is still pending.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.

Kalshi settles its year-end ranking market on which lab holds the top AI model on December 31, 2026 — the exchange’s biggest AI book at 11.5M contracts. On 20 September 2026 Claude led at 71.5%, ahead of ChatGPT at 13.6%, Gemini at 8.9% and Grok at 4.1%.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi priced each of five big banks at about 4.5% to 5% to serve as a lead underwriter for a Kraken US IPO before 1 January 2027. Bids of 1 to 2 cents sit against asks of 8 cents, so the quotes are wide and carry little signal about timing; it is a bet on who leads the deal, not a listing date.

Finland's Posiva began drilling the first deposition hole at the Onkalo repository, a step toward becoming the world's first facility to permanently bury spent nuclear fuel.

A free midnight fireworks show over the lakefront skyline.

Floral floats, marching bands and equestrian units follow the 5.5-mile route through Pasadena on New Year's Day under the 2027 theme, Welcome.

The Rose Bowl in Pasadena stages one of the four CFP quarterfinals on New Year's Day, with a top-four seed facing a first-round winner.

The Prudential Regulation Authority's Basel 3.1 final rules take effect in the UK on 1 January 2027, a year later than first planned, with the market-risk internal model approach following on 1 January 2028.

China's first mandatory national standard for L2 combined driver-assistance systems, GB 47955-2026, takes effect on 1 January 2027, defining three tiers up to NOA and curbing exaggerated "L2.5" marketing.

A new four-kilometre rail crossing over the Strait of Johor aims to cut the commute between Johor Bahru and Singapore from up to four hours to about six minutes.

Nestlé stops making hollow chocolate figures at its 220-worker Diósgyőr plant in Miskolc at the end of 2026, and Hungarian food wholesaler Vimpex takes the factory over from 1 January 2027, keeping at least a third of the staff.

The winner of the 3 November election takes office on 1 January 2027, the day the state constitution starts the political year, for a four-year term. Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking re-election against Bruce Blakeman.

Dakar 2027, the 49th edition and the eighth in Saudi Arabia, runs 1-15 January 2027 as a loop starting and finishing in King Abdullah Economic City, with 5,320 km of timed special stages, the most of the Saudi era.