- Start
- Oct 2, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Oct 2, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
The September Jobs Report Lands, With Markets Betting Unemployment Holds Near 4.1%
- The Employment Situation for September 2026 is scheduled for Friday 2 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern[1]
- August's report showed nonfarm payrolls up 162,000, against an average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months, with unemployment unchanged at 4.1% (7.0 million people)[4]
- June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000; July went from -23,000 to +21,000[4]
- Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.75 in August, up 3.1% on the year[4]
- Kalshi prices September payrolls above 0 at 88% and above 60,000 at 70%, on about $250,000 traded (read on 1 October 2026)[2]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder puts the rate above 4.0% at 69% and above 4.1% at 38%, so 4.1% is the likeliest print (read on 1 October 2026)[3]
References 477% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 77%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htmbls.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Oct 2, 2026 ✓· Ends Oct 2, 2026 ✓· 26% of score
BLS's[4] October 2026 release schedule lists the Employment Situation for September 2026 on Friday 2 October at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the August release names the same time for the next one.
- [2]70%Jobs numbers in Sep 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 26% of score
Payrolls ladder for September 2026: above 0 at 88%, above 60,000 at 70% on 1 October 2026.[1]
- [3]70%Unemployment in September - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 26% of score
Unemployment-rate ladder for September 2026: above 4.0% at 69%, above 4.1% at 38% on 1 October 2026.[1]
- [4]95%Employment Situation News Release - August 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Sep 4, 2026· 23% of score
August's release: +162,000 jobs, 4.1% unemployment, and the September report scheduled for 2 October at 8:30 a.m. ET.[1]
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