Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins64% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 64%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 87 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.
