Russia: upcoming dates

Upcoming dates: 2 · All pins: 12

Next: Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?, December 31, 2026.

All Russia pins in search

Upcoming

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?
Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine
Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins64% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 64%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.
Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk
First Sarmat ICBM Regiment Due on Combat Duty at Uzhur
Uzhur, Uzhursky Rayon, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberian Federal District, RussiaStrategic Rocket Forces
Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins69% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 69%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysMoscow Times, 12 May 2026: Karakayev said the test 'clears the way for Russia's Strategic Missile Forces to station the first Sarmat-armed regiment at its Uzhur unit in the Krasnoyarsk region by the end of 2026'; the pin takes 31 December 2026.^[1]
Russia says the first regiment armed with the Sarmat heavy ICBM will go on combat duty at the Uzhur missile division in Krasnoyarsk Territory by the end of 2026, after years of delays and test failures.

Recent

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Russians Vote for a New State Duma
State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia
09/18/2026 - 09/20/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence14 days agoRussian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

Related tags

Upcoming

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED64% CONFIDENCEin 90 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

Polymarket

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

First Sarmat ICBM Regiment Due on Combat Duty at Uzhur

Uzhur, Uzhursky Rayon, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberian Federal District, Russia

Strategic Rocket Forces

First Sarmat ICBM Regiment Due on Combat Duty at Uzhur

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 90 daysMoscow Times, 12 May 2026: Karakayev said the test 'clears the way for Russia's Strategic Missile Forces to station the first Sarmat-armed regiment at its Uzhur unit in the Krasnoyarsk region by the end of 2026'; the pin takes 31 December 2026.^[1]

Russia says the first regiment armed with the Sarmat heavy ICBM will go on combat duty at the Uzhur missile division in Krasnoyarsk Territory by the end of 2026, after years of delays and test failures.

Recent

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Russians Vote for a New State Duma

State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia

09/18/2026 - 09/20/2026SCHEDULED73% CONFIDENCE14 days agoRussian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.

Polymarket

Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).