Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

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• Crypto09/17/2026@MarketDesk

  Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin Will Bottom in October 2026

  

  Starts 10/01/2026ESTIMATED72% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysCowen's own timeline, not a confirmed date: he expects the bottom about a year after the cycle's October 2025 top, the same gap as the prior two cycles, unless a deep capitulation event pulls it forward to around May 2026. He has separately named $40,000 - where Realized Price and Balanced Price converge - as the level he watches for that bottom.^[1]

  Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, argues Bitcoin's current cycle should bottom around October 2026 — about a year after its October 2025 peak near $126,000, matching the gap between top and bottom in each of Bitcoin's two prior cycles. He leaves room for an earlier low around May 2026 only if a sharp capitulation event pushes the year's returns well outside the range typical of past midterm-cycle years; CryptoQuant's on-chain models point to a similar September-November window.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000

  

  Starts 11/30/2026ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin's End-of-2026 Price Settles at Midnight

  

  Starts 01/01/2027 5:00AMSCHEDULED76% CONFIDENCEin 100 daysKalshi^[1][2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.

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  Kalshi’s largest crypto event settles on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. ET on January 1, 2027, splitting the outcome into $5,000 buckets. On 20 September 2026, with BTC near $80,800, the market’s favourites were $75,000–$80,000 at 14.9% and $80,000–$85,000 at 13.9% — a year that ends roughly where it stood.

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• Energy09/23/2026@EnergyDesk

  Babcock & Wilcox Reports Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

  1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox·…

  

  Starts 03/04/2026 11:40AMCONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE203 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – March 4, 2026)" with no clock time, and the Form 8-K furnishing it as Exhibit 99.1 shows "Accepted 2026-03-04 06:40:37" (ET) on SEC^[3][4][5] EDGAR, so the pin is timed to 06:40 ET (11:40 UTC); the call to discuss it came later, on "Monday, March 16, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET".

  Fourth-quarter revenue was $161.0 million and adjusted EBITDA $16.4 million, and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 107% to $43.7 million. Backlog reached $2.8 billion with the $2.4 billion Base Electron AI data-centre power project announced the same morning.

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• Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count

  SpaceX Headquarters, 1 Rocket Road, Hawthorne, CASpaceX

  

  Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysAn annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi^[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket^[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.

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  Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.

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• Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.

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  The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

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• Transport09/14/2026@BuildDesk

  MTA's $68.4BN 2025-2029 Capital Plan Gets Final Approval

  2 Broadway, Manhattan, New York, NY, USAMetropolitan Transportation Authority

  

  Starts 06/18/2025CONFIRMED84% CONFIDENCE1.3 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "the MTA's^[3] 2025-2029 Capital Plan has been approved so quickly by the CPRB".

  New York's MTA won final approval for a record $68.4 billion five-year capital plan aimed at modernizing the aging subway, from new train cars to next-generation train control.

  $68.4B

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• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  DOE Awards the Biggest Exchange in the SPR's Fifty Years

  James Forrestal Building, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, D.C. 20585, United StatesUS Department of Energy

  

  Starts 05/11/2026CONFIRMED92% CONFIDENCE135 days agoDOE's award announcement is dated 11 May 2026; the 92.5-million-barrel solicitation it answers was issued on 30 April 2026.^[1]

  After soliciting up to 92.5 million barrels from all four storage sites - the largest single exchange in the reserve's history - DOE awarded contracts for 53.3 million on 11 May 2026, at a return premium of about 28 per cent. That is 15.1 million extra barrels owed back to the stockpile.

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• Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang

  Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.

  Federal Reserve

  6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.

  — RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

  Starts 05/11/2023UNVERIFIED25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago

  Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.

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• Infrastructure09/15/2026@BuildDesk

  Afsluitdijk's Storm-Proofing Upgrade Wraps Up in the Netherlands

  Breezanddijk, Afsluitdijk, NetherlandsLevvel

  

  Starts 06/01/2023ESTIMATED64% CONFIDENCE3.3 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "completed the work in 2023."

  The Levvel consortium finished reinforcing the 32-kilometre Afsluitdijk sea wall with tens of thousands of custom concrete blocks so it can withstand a one-in-10,000-year storm.

  $617M

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• Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027

  National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA

  

  Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.

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  Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.

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• Semiconductors09/19/2026@TechDesk

  Huang: $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin orders through 2027

  Santa Clara, CaliforniaNVIDIA·…

  

  Starts 03/16/2026CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE191 days agoCNBC's^[1] 16 March 2026 coverage of the GTC 2026 keynote reports the remark.

  At GTC 2026, Huang said he expects purchase orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin to reach $1 trillion through 2027, up from the $500 billion outlook given the previous year.

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