Pins matching tag:"Prediction Market"

An October 30 Polymarket snapshot gives California Proposition 40 a 22.5% passage chance on USD 4.48 million reported volume. Voters decide November 3; competing measures could affect implementation.

Polymarket asks whether the United States launches a qualifying air or missile strike on Iran by 11:59 PM ET on November 3, 2026. On November 2 traders priced 'Yes, the ceasefire holds' at 95.5%; by 03:30 UTC on November 3, after a reported US strike on Qeshm Island, the Yes price had fallen to 0.5%.

Polymarket confirmed on 11 November 2026 that it had laid off some full-time staff and ended many contractor agreements, effective 4 November, mainly in marketing, customer experience and engineering. More than half of those affected were contractors; the company disputes a viral claim that 30% of its workforce was cut and has not published a headcount.

Godzilla Minus Zero opened in North America on November 6, 2026. On November 7 evening Pacific, Polymarket’s US$31–34 million opening-weekend bracket led at 54%, with US$185,057.04 traded; final receipts remained unknown.

Polymarket priced Christopher Luxon at 83% on November 7, 2026, while preliminary election results left government formation unresolved. Official results are due November 27; no new government is declared here.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October 2026 Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on 6 November. On 3 November Kalshi priced payrolls above 0 at 82% and unemployment above 4.0% at 94%.

New Zealand’s November 7 preliminary count projected National with 42 seats and Labour with 36, despite Labour leading the party vote. Official results are due November 27; the most-seats market remains a forecast.

The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship is decided at Homestead on November 7, 2026, with a 5 p.m. Eastern start. Kalshi prices Justin Allgaier at 52–53% in the current bid–ask book.

Ontario Liberals vote online November 9–20, 2026, with results on November 21. On November 7, Polymarket priced Lee Fairclough around 65% and Navdeep Bains around 34% from US$19,830 traded.

On November 10, 2026 the House voted 211-204 to refer Rep. Thomas Massie's eight-article impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Judiciary Committee, which CBS reports effectively ends the push for now. Kalshi had priced a recorded House vote before November 14 at 93% that morning; a motion to refer is a qualifying vote under its rules.

BLS published October 2026 consumer prices on 10 November: the CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted and core (less food and energy) rose 0.3%. BLS did not publish 12-month rates for October. Before the release, on 6 November evening, Kalshi's Yes bid/ask was 58–61% above a 0.2% headline monthly increase and 14–15% above 0.3%, centring on a 0.3% headline and 0.2% core.

Kai Cenat began a back-to-back stream of GTA III, Vice City, San Andreas, GTA IV and GTA V on 5 November 2026, ahead of Grand Theft Auto VI on 19 November. On 10 November Polymarket priced a finish by 12 November at 97.8% and by 16 November at 99.4%, on about US$1.7 million traded.

On November 12, 2026 Nvidia's board announced that Jensen Huang had resigned as president, CEO and director effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones its first board chair. Polymarket's announced-exit market, listed November 8 at about 11.5% for a December 31 deadline, had spiked to near-certainty by the filing.

SpaceX is targeting no earlier than November 13, 2026 for Starship Flight 15, according to Eric Berger’s November 5 report of launch vice president Kiko Dontchev’s UP.Summit remarks. No final liftoff time is announced.

David Leitch's heist thriller How to Rob a Bank, with Nicholas Hoult and Zoe Kravitz, opens in the US on 13 November 2026. On 11 November Kalshi gave a 52% chance of a Rotten Tomatoes score above 50 (about US$65,000 traded).

Ti West's Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol, with Johnny Depp as Scrooge, opens in the US on 13 November 2026. On 10 November Kalshi gave a 76% chance of a Rotten Tomatoes score above 30 (about US$208,000 traded) and Polymarket 68% for 30 or higher.

On 13 November 2026 the FAA stopped all departures at US airports from about 3:54 p.m. Eastern after a telecommunications failure hit its 22 en route air traffic control centers; flights resumed in the early evening while the cause, reportedly a network update and reboot on an L3Harris-run system, remains unconfirmed. By 14 November Kalshi's cause market had about US$340,000 traded and Polymarket priced an Iran attribution at 1.4%.

The first Eurovision Song Contest Asia Grand Final is on 14 November 2026 in Bangkok. On 9 November 2026 Polymarket traders priced Malaysia at about 55% to win, ahead of the Philippines at 26% and Vietnam at 9%, with roughly US$34,000 traded.

Gen.G of the LCK and Bilibili Gaming of the LPL meet in a best-of-five final for the Summoner's Cup at Brooklyn's Barclays Center on November 14, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET; Kalshi traders favoured Gen.G at 63% when read.

The League of Legends World Championship final pits LCK's Gen.G against LPL's Bilibili Gaming at Barclays Center in Brooklyn on November 14, best of five. Kalshi priced Gen.G at 63% on November 14 (about $598K traded, up from 62% and $418K on November 13).

Cabo Verde holds its presidential election on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if no candidate wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent José Maria Neves at about 95%, ahead of Joana Rosa at about 5%, on roughly $42,000 traded.

With no ceasefire in force on 10 November and indirect talks under way, Polymarket traders on 11 November gave a 2-week-pause ceasefire between the US and Iran a 54.5% chance of beginning by 15 November and 82.5% by 31 December, with about US$754,000 traded.

Ljubljana elects its mayor on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if nobody wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent Zoran Janković at about 63% and The Left's Luka Mesec at about 36%, on roughly $275,000 traded.

UFC 334 on November 14, 2026 at Madison Square Garden has champion Ciryl Gane defending the heavyweight title against Josh Hokit, with Kayla Harrison against Amanda Nunes as co-main; on 14 November Kalshi traders priced Gane at 68% on $9.0 million traded.

The Recording Academy reveals the nominees for the 69th Grammy Awards, the first under ABC's new broadcast deal and the first with five new categories including Best Asian Pop Music Performance and Best Latin Song.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Album of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo, Olivia Dean, Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift albums all at or above 83 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Record of the Year nominees market priced Bruno Mars's "I Just Might" and Olivia Dean's "Man I Need" near 88 cents each ahead of the 16 November nominations.

On 29 September 2026 Kalshi's Song of the Year nominees market had Olivia Rodrigo's "the cure" at 90 cents and Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" at 89 cents ahead of the 16 November nominations.

Christie's offers Pablo Picasso's 1969 painting Le Baiser in New York on 17 November 2026; on 11 November Polymarket gave 39% to a $50-60 million sale price and 24% to $40-50 million.

Dancing with the Stars season 35 holds its semifinal on Tuesday 17 November 2026 on ABC and Disney+, with six couples left. Kalshi's elimination market, read 13 November, priced 'None' at 42%, Maura Higgins at 34%, Tatyana Ali at 17% and Connor Wood at 7%, on about $21,500 traded.

Polymarket's sale-price market for Vincent van Gogh's Châtaigniers en fleurs, which Sotheby's New York offers on November 18, 2026 with a press-quoted estimate near $180 million, put 39% on $200m-$225m and 29% on $225m or more on November 13 (68% for $200m or more on the two brackets together, versus 73% on November 12), on about $21,900 traded.

Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by fewer than 700 votes with 74% counted on 6 November 2026, and Alaska will not run its ranked-choice tabulation before 18 November. On 13 November Kalshi gave 56% to an AP call before 18 November and 81% before 19 November.

Rockstar's return to Vice City, the most anticipated game release in years, after slipping from an earlier 2026 target. Announced date.

November 11 Polymarket odds put Anthropic’s IPO launch on November 19 at 85% (November 20: 8%), on $333K of volume. Kalshi’s announcement ladder agrees: 95% before November 20.

On 9 November 2026 Polymarket put Anthropic shares listed and open for trading by November 20, 2026 at 82%, on US$7,359,861 of event volume. That strike is now the first to pass even odds (November 19 was 39%), so it marks the market's expected first day of trading.

On October 22, Polymarket’s public Taipei winner page showed Chiang Wan-an at 63% and Puma Shen at 37.6%, with US$1,761,117 total event volume. The November 28 vote is scheduled; the winner remains a prediction.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

Polymarket traders price a 55.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash-Lite model (version 3.6 or higher) by November 30, 2026, up from 16% by October 31.

On October 17, Polymarket priced a replacement announcement by November 30 at 62.5%, versus 18.5% by October 31 and 82.5% by December 31, with US$229,217 traded. November 30 is an estimated timeline marker, not an official appointment date.

Kalshi's November Brent contract resolves to a one-minute closing price on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. On the evening of November 13 Pacific the Yes bid/ask put the 50% crossing at about US$93.5 per barrel (58-59% above US$91.99, 47-48% above US$93.99, 28-36% above US$95.99), with about 137,000 traded contracts across 30 thresholds. October finalized at US$112.35.

Polymarket traders price an 82.5% chance that Google will release its next Gemini Flash model (version 3.9 or higher) by November 30, 2026, with the largest single probability bracket falling across November after a 33% mark by October 31.

Polymarket traders price a 40% chance that DeepSeek will release its next Pro model by November 30, 2026, on over $24,000 in volume.

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put Discord shares listed and open for trading by November 30 at 2.4%, on US$17,614 of event volume. No strike reaches even odds yet, so the date marks the biggest jump in the ladder, not a confident call.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Cluely IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2% to 3%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Brex IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 3.5% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (2.5% to 5%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 11 November 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 96%, with Drake at 3% and Taylor Swift under 1%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

Formula 1's first season under the 2026 rules ends with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina on Sunday 6 December 2026, the 24th and final round. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi priced the constructors' championship as all but over: Mercedes sat at 95-96%, with Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all at 1-2%.

An October18 market gives Kimi Antonelli a97.6% chance of the2026 drivers’ title on US$204.43 million traded. December6 is an estimated season-end marker; the title could be clinched earlier.