Pins matching tag:"Prediction Market"

Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.

14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.

Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.

Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14, the inflation print the Fed sees before its October 28 decision. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put headline CPI above 3.4% at 93% and above 3.6% at 46%, so the market was centred on a 3.5–3.6% year-over-year rate.

Major League Baseball's published postseason schedule puts World Series Game 1 on Friday 23 October 2026, with Game 7 on Saturday 31 October if the series goes the distance. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's champion market had no runaway favourite: the Dodgers sat at 29%, Milwaukee at 16% and the Yankees at 10%.

For the first time the Ballon d'Or leaves Paris: the 2026 ceremony is on Monday 26 October 2026 in London, marking 70 years since the first award. On 20 September 2026 Harry Kane was a clear favourite on both exchanges at 55-56%, with Lamine Yamal at 22% and Kylian Mbappé at 8%.

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.

Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s Anthropic IPO ladder went from a 9% chance of an announcement before November 1 to 50% before December 1, putting 41 points of probability on November 2026 alone — by far the single likeliest month. By April 2027 the market had the announcement at 91%.

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

Formula 1's first season under the 2026 rules ends with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina on Sunday 6 December 2026, the 24th and final round. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi priced the constructors' championship as all but over: Mercedes sat at 95-96%, with Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull all at 1-2%.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

The Game Awards return to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday 10 December 2026. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had Grand Theft Auto VI at 69% for Game of the Year, well clear of Resident Evil Requiem at 14% and Phantom Blade Zero at 7%.

The Heisman Trophy is presented on Saturday 12 December 2026, at a televised ceremony on ABC that the Heisman Trophy Trust marks as a private event. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market was the tightest in years: Trinidad Chambliss led at 24% and Darian Mensah at 22%, with Kamario Taylor at 10%.

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.