- Start
- Feb 7, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Feb 7, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
January 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Add 143,000 and Unemployment Dips to 4.0%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 143,000 in January, against an average monthly gain of 166,000 over 2024[1]
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, with 6.849 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 17 cents, or 0.5%, to $35.87, up 4.1% on the year[1]
- November was revised up 49,000 to +261,000 and December up 51,000 to +307,000, a combined gain of 100,000[1]
- The annual benchmark revision lowered the March 2024 employment level by 589,000, and new population controls raised the civilian population age 16 and over by 2.9 million[1]
- Health care added 44,000 jobs, retail trade 34,000 and social assistance 22,000; BLS said the Southern California wildfires and severe winter weather had no discernible effect[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for January resolved Yes up to "Above 100,000", with about 278 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for January resolved Yes up to "Above 3.9%", with about 91 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's January payrolls market resolved to the 100-150k bracket, with about $138 thousand traded[5]
References 582% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - January 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Feb 7, 2025· Starts Feb 7, 2025 ✓· Ends Feb 7, 2025 ✓· 2% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 7 February 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the January 2025 report on 7 February 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in January 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for January 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 100,000", and about 278 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in January 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for January 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 3.9%" and about 91 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in January? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Polymarket's event for the January 2025 jobs added resolved to 100-150k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $138 thousand traded.
Suggest a correction
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most. A picture that shows something else, or shows it badly, is looked at too, and moved down or replaced.
