- Start
- Apr 4, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Apr 4, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
March 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Jump 228,000 and Unemployment Holds at 4.2%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, against an average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.2%, with 7.1 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $36.00, up 3.8% on the year[1]
- January was revised down 14,000 to +111,000 and February down 34,000 to +117,000, a combined loss of 48,000[1]
- Health care added 54,000 jobs, retail trade 24,000, social assistance 24,000 and transportation and warehousing 23,000, retail partly reflecting workers returning from a strike, while federal government lost 4,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for March resolved Yes up to "Above 200,000", with about 219 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for March resolved Yes up to "Above 4.1%", with about 105 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's March payrolls market resolved to the 200-250k bracket, with about $169 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's March unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.2% bracket, with about $57 thousand traded[6]
References 680% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - March 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Apr 4, 2025· Starts Apr 4, 2025 ✓· Ends Apr 4, 2025 ✓· 2% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 4 April 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 20% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the March 2025 report on 4 April 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in March 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 20% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for March 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 200,000", and about 219 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in March 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 20% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for March 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.1%" and about 105 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in March? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 20% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the March 2025 jobs added resolved to 200-250k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $169 thousand traded.
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