- Start
- Sep 5, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Sep 5, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
August 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise Only 22,000 and Unemployment Climbs to 4.3%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 22,000 in August, and BLS said employment growth had been minimal since April[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.3%, with 7.384 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $36.53, up 3.7% on the year[1]
- June was revised down 27,000 to a loss of 13,000 and July up 6,000 to +79,000, a net loss of 21,000[1]
- Health care added 31,000 jobs and social assistance 16,000, while federal government lost 15,000, wholesale trade 12,000 and mining 6,000[1]
- BLS scheduled its preliminary annual benchmark revision announcement for 9 September 2025[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for August resolved Yes up to "Above 0", with about 1.7 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for August resolved Yes up to "Above 4.2%", with about 681 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's August payrolls market resolved to the <50k bracket, with about $342 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's August unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.3% bracket, with about $206 thousand traded[6]
References 681% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - August 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Sep 5, 2025· Starts Sep 5, 2025 ✓· Ends Sep 5, 2025 ✓· 4% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 5 September 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the August 2025 report on 5 September 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in August 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for August 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 0", and about 1.7 million contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in August 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for August 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.2%" and about 681 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in August? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the August 2025 jobs added resolved to <50k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $342 thousand traded.
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