- Start
- Jul 2, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Jul 2, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
June 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise Just 57,000 and Unemployment Dips to 4.2% as Participation Falls
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, in line with an average monthly change of 36,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.2%, with 7.1 million people unemployed, while labor force participation fell 0.3 points to 61.5%[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 13 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.64, up 3.5% on the year[1]
- April was revised down 31,000 to +148,000 and May down 43,000 to +129,000, a combined loss of 74,000[1]
- Professional and business services added 36,000 jobs, social assistance 25,000 and health care 22,000, while leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 on weaker than usual seasonal hiring[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for June resolved Yes up to "Above 50,000", with about 614 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for June resolved Yes up to "Above 4.1%", with about 140 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's June payrolls market resolved to the 50k – 100k bracket, with about $16 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's June unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.2% bracket, with about $39 thousand traded[6]
References 682% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - June 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Jul 2, 2026· Starts Jul 2, 2026 ✓· Ends Jul 2, 2026 ✓· 12% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 2 July 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 18% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the June 2026 report on 2 July 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in June 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 18% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for June 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 50,000", and about 614 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in June 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 18% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for June 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.1%" and about 140 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in June? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 18% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the June 2026 jobs added resolved to 50k – 100k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $16 thousand traded.
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