- Start
- Sep 4, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Sep 4, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
August 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rebound by 162,000, Topping Every Estimate, With Unemployment at 4.1%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August[1]
- The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, with 7.0 million people unemployed; labor force participation edged up to 61.6%, still 0.5 points below January[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.75, up 3.1% on the year[1]
- June was revised up from +20,000 to +31,000 and July from a loss of 23,000 to +21,000, a combined gain of 55,000[1]
- Food services and drinking places added 59,000 jobs, local government education 42,000 and manufacturing 16,000, while information lost 23,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for August resolved Yes up to "Above 150,000", with about 359 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for August resolved Yes up to "Above 4.0%", with about 606 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's August payrolls market resolved to the 150k+ bracket, with about $76 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's August unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.1% bracket, with about $46 thousand traded[6]
References 682% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - August 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Sep 4, 2026· Starts Sep 4, 2026 ✓· Ends Sep 4, 2026 ✓· 15% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 4 September 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the August 2026 report on 4 September 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in August 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for August 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 150,000", and about 359 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in August 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for August 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.0%" and about 606 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in August? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the August 2026 jobs added resolved to 150k+, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $76 thousand traded.
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