- Start
- Aug 7, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Aug 7, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
July 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Unexpectedly Fall 23,000 as Local Government Education Sheds 50,000
- Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July, down 23,000[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.1%, with 6.9 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.62, up 3.2% on the year[1]
- May was revised down 66,000 to +63,000 and June down 37,000 to +20,000, a combined loss of 103,000[1]
- Local government education lost 50,000 jobs and retail trade 19,000, while health care added 22,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for July resolved Yes up to "Above -25,000", with about 588 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for July resolved Yes up to "Above 4.0%", with about 675 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's July payrolls market resolved to the <0 bracket, with about $38 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's July unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.1% bracket, with about $49 thousand traded[6]
References 682% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - July 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Aug 7, 2026· Starts Aug 7, 2026 ✓· Ends Aug 7, 2026 ✓· 14% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 7 August 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the July 2026 report on 7 August 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in July 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for July 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above -25,000", and about 588 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in July 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for July 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.0%" and about 675 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in July? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 17% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the July 2026 jobs added resolved to <0, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $38 thousand traded.
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