- Start
- Jun 6, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Jun 6, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
May 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 139,000, but Revisions Take 95,000 Off March and April
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, against an average monthly gain of 149,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.2%, with 7.237 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $36.24, up 3.9% on the year[1]
- March was revised down 65,000 to +120,000 and April down 30,000 to +147,000, a combined loss of 95,000[1]
- Health care added 62,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality 48,000, while federal government lost 22,000, taking its losses since January to 59,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for May resolved Yes up to "Above 100,000", with about 1.5 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for May resolved Yes up to "Above 4.1%", with about 621 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's May payrolls market resolved to the 100-150k bracket, with about $200 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's May unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.2% bracket, with about $311 thousand traded[6]
References 680% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - May 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Jun 6, 2025· Starts Jun 6, 2025 ✓· Ends Jun 6, 2025 ✓· 3% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 6 June 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the May 2025 report on 6 June 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in May 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for May 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 100,000", and about 1.5 million contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in May 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for May 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.1%" and about 621 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in May? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the May 2025 jobs added resolved to 100-150k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $200 thousand traded.
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