- Start
- Aug 1, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Aug 1, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
July 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise Just 73,000 as Revisions Erase 258,000 From May and June
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July, and BLS said employment had shown little change since April[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.2%, with 7.236 million people unemployed; the long-term unemployed rose to 1.8 million, 24.9% of the total[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $36.44, up 3.9% on the year[1]
- May was revised down 125,000 to +19,000 and June down 133,000 to +14,000, a combined loss of 258,000[1]
- Health care added 55,000 jobs, social assistance 18,000 and financial activities 15,000, while professional and business services lost 14,000, federal government 12,000 and manufacturing 11,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for July resolved Yes up to "Above 0", with about 1.6 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for July resolved Yes up to "Above 4.1%", with about 1.3 million contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's July payrolls market resolved to the 50k–100k bracket, with about $130 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's July unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.2% bracket, with about $38 thousand traded[6]
References 681% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - July 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Aug 1, 2025· Starts Aug 1, 2025 ✓· Ends Aug 1, 2025 ✓· 4% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 1 August 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the July 2025 report on 1 August 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in July 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for July 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 0", and about 1.6 million contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in July 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for July 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.1%" and about 1.3 million contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in July? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the July 2025 jobs added resolved to 50k–100k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $130 thousand traded.
Suggest a correction
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most. A picture that shows something else, or shows it badly, is looked at too, and moved down or replaced.
