- Start
- Jan 9, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Jan 9, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
December 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 50,000 and Unemployment Eases to 4.4%, With October Cut to a Loss of 173,000
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, and total nonfarm employment changed little[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.4%, with 7.5 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $37.02, up 3.8% on the year[1]
- October was revised down 68,000 to a loss of 173,000 and November down 8,000 to +56,000[1]
- Food services and drinking places added 27,000 jobs, health care 21,000 and social assistance 17,000, while retail trade lost 25,000[1]
- Federal government employment was down 277,000, or 9.2%, since its January 2025 peak, and the long-term unemployed were up 397,000 over the year[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for December resolved Yes up to "Above 40,000", with about 627 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for December resolved Yes up to "Above 4.3%", with about 842 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's December payrolls market resolved to the 50k–75k bracket, with about $18 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's December unemployment rate market resolved to the ≤4.4% bracket, with about $74 thousand traded[6]
References 681% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - December 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Jan 9, 2026· Starts Jan 9, 2026 ✓· Ends Jan 9, 2026 ✓· 7% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 9 January 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the December 2025 report on 9 January 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in December 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for December 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 40,000", and about 627 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in December 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for December 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.3%" and about 842 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in December? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the December 2025 jobs added resolved to 50k–75k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $18 thousand traded.
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