- Start
- Feb 11, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Feb 11, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
January 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 130,000 While the Benchmark Cuts 2025 Job Growth to 181,000
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.3%, with 7.362 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $37.17, up 3.7% on the year[1]
- November was revised down from +56,000 to +41,000 and December from +50,000 to +48,000[1]
- With the annual benchmark to March 2025, total nonfarm employment growth for 2025 was revised from 584,000 to 181,000[1]
- Health care added 82,000 jobs, social assistance 42,000 and construction 33,000, while federal government lost 34,000 and financial activities 22,000[1]
- The release was moved from 6 to 11 February, and household survey population control adjustments were delayed to the March release[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for January resolved Yes up to "Above 125,000", with about 825 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[4]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for January resolved Yes up to "Above 4.2%", with about 838 thousand contracts traded[5]
- Polymarket's January payrolls market resolved to the >125k bracket, with about $308 thousand traded[6]
- Polymarket's January unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.3% bracket, with about $101 thousand traded[7]
References 783% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 83%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 7 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - January 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Feb 11, 2026· Starts Feb 11, 2026 ✓· Ends Feb 11, 2026 ✓· 6% of score
BLS's[2][3] archived release is dated 11 February 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar as revised after the shutdown.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
BLS's[1][3] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the January 2026 report on 11 February 2026.
- [3]90%Revised news release dates following the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
BLS's[1][2] notice of the dates it moved or cancelled after the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations.
- [4]80%Jobs numbers in January 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
Kalshi's[5] KXPAYROLLS market for January 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 125,000", and about 825 thousand contracts were traded.
- [5]80%Unemployment in January 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXU3 market for January 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.2%" and about 838 thousand contracts traded.
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