- Start
- Apr 3, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Apr 3, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
March 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rebound by 178,000 and Unemployment Dips to 4.3%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.3%, with 7.2 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $37.38, up 3.5% on the year[1]
- January was revised up 34,000 to +160,000 and February down 41,000 to a loss of 133,000[1]
- Health care added 76,000 jobs, construction 26,000 and transportation and warehousing 21,000, while federal government lost 18,000 and financial activities 15,000[1]
- Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed because they were paid for the period including the 12th[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for March resolved Yes up to "Above 125,000", with about 931 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for March resolved Yes up to "Above 4.2%", with about 321 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's March unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.3% bracket, with about $308 thousand traded[5]
References 583% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 83%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - March 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Apr 3, 2026· Starts Apr 3, 2026 ✓· Ends Apr 3, 2026 ✓· 11% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 3 April 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 22% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the March 2026 report on 3 April 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in March 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 22% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for March 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 125,000", and about 931 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in March 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 22% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for March 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.2%" and about 321 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%March Unemployment Rate - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 22% of score
Polymarket's event for the March 2026 unemployment rate resolved to 4.3%, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $308 thousand traded.
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