- Start
- Mar 6, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Mar 6, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
February 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Fall 92,000 as a Health Care Strike Drags and Unemployment Holds at 4.4%
- Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down 92,000 in February[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.4%, with 7.6 million people unemployed; the long-term unemployed rose to 1.9 million from 1.5 million a year earlier[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $37.32, up 3.8% on the year[1]
- December was revised from +48,000 to a loss of 17,000 and January from +130,000 to +126,000[1]
- Health care lost 28,000 jobs, reflecting strike activity that cut 37,000 from physician offices, while information lost 11,000 and federal government 10,000, and social assistance added 9,000[1]
- Federal government employment was down 330,000, or 11%, since its October 2024 peak[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for February drew about 793 thousand contracts across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for February resolved Yes up to "Above 4.3%", with about 461 thousand contracts traded[4]
References 485% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - February 2026 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Mar 6, 2026· Starts Mar 6, 2026 ✓· Ends Mar 6, 2026 ✓· 13% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 6 March 2026 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 29% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the February 2026 report on 6 March 2026.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in February 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 29% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for February 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, and about 793 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in February 2026? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 29% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for February 2026 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.3%" and about 461 thousand contracts traded.
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