- Start
- Mar 7, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Mar 7, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
February 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 151,000 With Federal Government Down 10,000
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 in February, against an average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.1%, with 7.1 million people unemployed; it had stayed between 4.0% and 4.2% since May 2024[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $35.93, up 4.0% on the year[1]
- December was revised up 16,000 to +323,000 and January down 18,000 to +125,000, a net loss of 2,000[1]
- Health care added 52,000 jobs, financial activities 21,000 and transportation and warehousing 18,000, while federal government lost 10,000 and retail trade 6,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for February resolved Yes up to "Above 150,000", with about 305 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for February resolved Yes up to "Above 4.0%", with about 102 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's February payrolls market resolved to the 150-200k bracket, with about $237 thousand traded[5]
References 582% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - February 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Mar 7, 2025· Starts Mar 7, 2025 ✓· Ends Mar 7, 2025 ✓· 3% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 7 March 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the February 2025 report on 7 March 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in February 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for February 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 150,000", and about 305 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in February 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for February 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.0%" and about 102 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in February? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Polymarket's event for the February 2025 jobs added resolved to 150-200k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $237 thousand traded.
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