- Start
- Jul 3, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Jul 3, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
June 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 147,000, Lifted by State Government, as Unemployment Eases to 4.1%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, against an average monthly gain of 146,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.1%, with 7.0 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.30, up 3.7% on the year[1]
- April was revised up 11,000 to +158,000 and May up 5,000 to +144,000, a combined gain of 16,000[1]
- State government added 47,000 jobs, health care 39,000 and social assistance 19,000, while federal government and manufacturing each lost 7,000[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for June resolved Yes up to "Above 100,000", with about 932 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for June resolved Yes up to "Above 4.0%", with about 835 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's June payrolls market resolved to the 100-149k bracket, with about $191 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's June unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.1% bracket, with about $189 thousand traded[6]
References 680% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - June 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Jul 3, 2025· Starts Jul 3, 2025 ✓· Ends Jul 3, 2025 ✓· 3% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 3 July 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the June 2025 report on 3 July 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in June 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for June 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 100,000", and about 932 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in June 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for June 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.0%" and about 835 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in June? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the June 2025 jobs added resolved to 100-149k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $191 thousand traded.
Suggest a correction
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most. A picture that shows something else, or shows it badly, is looked at too, and moved down or replaced.
