- Start
- Dec 16, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Dec 16, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
November 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 64,000 After October's Shutdown Loss of 105,000, and Unemployment Hits 4.6%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, after a loss of 105,000 in October, which BLS published for the first time alongside November[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.6%, with 7.831 million people unemployed, up from 7.603 million in September[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $36.86, up 3.5% on the year[1]
- August was revised down 22,000 to a loss of 26,000 and September down 11,000 to +108,000[1]
- Health care added 46,000 jobs, construction 28,000 and social assistance 18,000, while transportation and warehousing lost 18,000 and federal government 6,000[1]
- The federal government shutdown ran from 1 October to 12 November 2025; household survey data for October were not collected and will not be collected retroactively[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for November resolved Yes up to "Above 50,000", with about 638 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[4]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for November resolved Yes up to "Above 4.5%", with about 600 thousand contracts traded[5]
- Polymarket's November payrolls market resolved to the 50k–75k bracket, with about $22 thousand traded[6]
- Polymarket's November unemployment rate market resolved to the ≥4.6% bracket, with about $182 thousand traded[7]
References 782% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 7 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - November 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Dec 16, 2025· Starts Dec 16, 2025 ✓· Ends Dec 16, 2025 ✓· 5% of score
BLS's[2][3] archived release is dated 16 December 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar as revised after the shutdown.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
BLS's[1][3] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the November 2025 report on 16 December 2025.
- [3]90%Revised news release dates following the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
BLS's[1][2] notice of the dates it moved or cancelled after the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations.
- [4]80%Jobs numbers in November 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
Kalshi's[5] KXPAYROLLS market for November 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 50,000", and about 638 thousand contracts were traded.
- [5]80%Unemployment in November 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 16% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXU3 market for November 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.5%" and about 600 thousand contracts traded.
Suggest a correction
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most. A picture that shows something else, or shows it badly, is looked at too, and moved down or replaced.
