- Start
- Jan 10, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Jan 10, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
December 2024 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 256,000 to Close a Year That Added 2.2 Million Jobs
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 256,000 in December, and by 2.2 million over 2024, against an average monthly gain of 186,000[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.1%, with 6.9 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $35.69, up 3.9% on the year[1]
- October was revised up 7,000 to +43,000 and November down 15,000 to +212,000, a net loss of 8,000[1]
- Health care added 46,000 jobs, retail trade 43,000, leisure and hospitality 43,000 and government 33,000[1]
- Seasonally adjusted household survey data were revised back to January 2020, and new population controls took effect with the January report[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for December resolved Yes up to "Above 250,000", with about 124 thousand contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for December resolved Yes up to "Above 4.0%", with about 63 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's December payrolls market resolved to the 250-300k bracket, with about $228 thousand traded[5]
References 582% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - December 2024 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Jan 10, 2025· Starts Jan 10, 2025 ✓· Ends Jan 10, 2025 ✓· 2% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 10 January 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the December 2024 report on 10 January 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in December 2024? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for December 2024 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 250,000", and about 124 thousand contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in December 2024? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for December 2024 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.0%" and about 63 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in December? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 24% of score
Polymarket's event for the December 2024 jobs added resolved to 250-300k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $228 thousand traded.
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