- Start
- May 2, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- May 2, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
April 2025 Jobs Report: Payrolls Rise 177,000 and Unemployment Holds at 4.2%
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April, against an average monthly gain of 152,000 over the prior 12 months[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.2%, with 7.165 million people unemployed[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.06, up 3.8% on the year[1]
- February was revised down 15,000 to +102,000 and March down 43,000 to +185,000, a combined loss of 58,000[1]
- Health care added 51,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing 29,000 and financial activities 14,000, while federal government lost 9,000[1]
- BLS reissued the release on 3 June 2025 to note minor data errors from the April 2025 introduction of a redesigned household survey sample[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for April resolved Yes up to "Above 150,000", with about 2.2 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for April resolved Yes up to "Above 4.1%", with about 153 thousand contracts traded[4]
- Polymarket's April payrolls market resolved to the 150-200k bracket, with about $74 thousand traded[5]
- Polymarket's April unemployment rate market resolved to the 4.2% bracket, with about $59 thousand traded[6]
References 680% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - April 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published May 2, 2025· Starts May 2, 2025 ✓· Ends May 2, 2025 ✓· 3% of score
BLS's[2] archived release is dated 2 May 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
BLS's[1] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the April 2025 report on 2 May 2025.
- [3]80%Jobs numbers in April 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXPAYROLLS market for April 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 150,000", and about 2.2 million contracts were traded.
- [4]80%Unemployment in April 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Kalshi's[3] KXU3 market for April 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.1%" and about 153 thousand contracts traded.
- [5]75%How many jobs added in April? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 19% of score
Polymarket's[6] event for the April 2025 jobs added resolved to 150-200k, matching the BLS[1][2] print, with about $74 thousand traded.
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