- Start
- Nov 20, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Nov 20, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Delayed September 2025 Jobs Report Shows 119,000 Jobs Added and Unemployment at 4.4%, Six Weeks Late
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, and BLS said employment had shown little change since April[1]
- The unemployment rate was 4.4%, with 7.6 million people unemployed, up 219,000 from August[1]
- Average hourly earnings rose 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.67, up 3.8% on the year[1]
- July was revised down 7,000 to +72,000 and August down 26,000 to a loss of 4,000, a combined loss of 33,000[1]
- Health care added 43,000 jobs and food services and drinking places 37,000, while transportation and warehousing lost 25,000[1]
- The release was originally due on 3 October 2025 and was pushed back by the lapse in appropriations; BLS cancelled the separate October release[1]
- Kalshi's payrolls ladder for September resolved Yes up to "Above 100,000", with about 1.5 million contracts traded across its thresholds[4]
- Kalshi's unemployment ladder for September resolved Yes up to "Above 4.3%", with about 665 thousand contracts traded[5]
References 586% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 86%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Employment Situation News Release - September 2025 - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Published Nov 20, 2025· Starts Nov 20, 2025 ✓· Ends Nov 20, 2025 ✓· 7% of score
BLS's[2][3] archived release is dated 20 November 2025 and marked for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, matching its Employment Situation calendar as revised after the shutdown.
- [2]90%Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 23% of score
BLS's[1][3] release calendar for the Employment Situation, which lists the September 2025 report on 20 November 2025.
- [3]90%Revised news release dates following the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations - Bureau of Labor Statisticsbls.gov· Added Oct 2, 2026· 23% of score
BLS's[1][2] notice of the dates it moved or cancelled after the 2025 and 2026 lapses in appropriations.
- [4]80%Jobs numbers in September 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 23% of score
Kalshi's[5] KXPAYROLLS market for September 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] print, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 100,000", and about 1.5 million contracts were traded.
- [5]80%Unemployment in September 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 2, 2026· 23% of score
Kalshi's[4] KXU3 market for September 2025 settled on the BLS[1][2][3] rate, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 4.3%" and about 665 thousand contracts traded.
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